 Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
 Part 2. MM4XL Tools
 1. Strategic Tools
 BCG Matrix
 Brand Mapping
 Brand Switch
 Decision Tree
 Forecast Manager
 McKinsey Matrix
 Profile Manager
 Quality Manager
 Risk Analyst
 Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
 Introduction to Decision Analysis
 Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
 1. How to run Risk Analyst
 2. Simulation Never heard of it
 3. Examples
 4. Functions
 1. Property Functions
 2. Utility Functions
 3. Distribution Functions
 mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
 mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
 mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
 mmCHI2 (Degrees)
 mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
 mmERF (Mean)
 mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
 mmEXPON (Mean)
 mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
 mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
 mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
 mmGEO (Trials)
 mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
 mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
 mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
 mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmPOISSON (Mean)
 mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
 mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
 mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
 mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
 mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
 Probability functions
 Technicalities
 Sources
 2. Analytical Tools
 Business Formulas
 mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
 mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
 mmBEP, BreakEven Point
 mmBEPR, BreakEven Point with Fixed Rate of Return
 mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
 mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
 mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
 mmCODING, Coding of variables
 1. Customer Satisfaction
 2. Database Functions
 mmDHMS, Number to Time
 mmEI, Evolution Index
 mmEXPECT, Expected values
 3. Forecast Errors
 mmGROWTH
 mmGROWTHBACK
 mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
 mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
 mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
 mmLEARN, Learning Curve
 mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
 4. Opportunity Index
 5. Performance Ranking
 6. Project Management
 mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
 mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
 7. Price Indexes
 8. Queuing Theory
 mmRANGE
 mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
 mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of RePurchases
 mmRELATIVE
 mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
 mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
 mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
 mmSHARE
 mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
 mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
 Cluster Analysis
 CrossTab
 Descriptive Analyst
 Gravitation Analysis
 Proportion Analyst
 Sample Manager
 Segmentation Tree
 Variation Analyst
 3. Charts and Maps
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 Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
 Part 2. MM4XL Tools
 1. Strategic Tools
 BCG Matrix
 Brand Mapping
 Brand Switch
 Decision Tree
 Forecast Manager
 McKinsey Matrix
 Profile Manager
 Quality Manager
 Risk Analyst
 1. How to run Risk Analyst
 2. Simulation Never heard of it
 3. Examples
 4. Functions
 1. Property Functions
 2. Utility Functions
 3. Distribution Functions
 mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
 mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
 mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
 mmCHI2 (Degrees)
 mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
 mmERF (Mean)
 mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
 mmEXPON (Mean)
 mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
 mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
 mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
 mmGEO (Trials)
 mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
 mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
 mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
 mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmPOISSON (Mean)
 mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
 mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
 mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
 mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
 mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
 Probability functions
 Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
 Introduction to Decision Analysis
 Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
 Technicalities
 Sources
 2. Analytical Tools
 Business Formulas
 1. Customer Satisfaction
 2. Database Functions
 3. Forecast Errors
 4. Opportunity Index
 5. Performance Ranking
 6. Project Management
 7. Price Indexes
 8. Queuing Theory
 mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
 mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
 mmBEP, BreakEven Point
 mmBEPR, BreakEven Point with Fixed Rate of Return
 mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
 mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
 mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
 mmCODING, Coding of variables
 mmDHMS, Number to Time
 mmEI, Evolution Index
 mmEXPECT, Expected values
 mmGROWTH
 mmGROWTHBACK
 mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
 mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
 mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
 mmLEARN, Learning Curve
 mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
 mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
 mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
 mmRANGE
 mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
 mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of RePurchases
 mmRELATIVE
 mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
 mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
 mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
 mmSHARE
 mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
 mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
 Cluster Analysis
 CrossTab
 Descriptive Analyst
 Gravitation Analysis
 Proportion Analyst
 Sample Manager
 Segmentation Tree
 Variation Analyst
 3. Charts and Maps
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Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Decision Tree > 1. An Example as an Appetizer > Take Less Risk
Decision Tree Take Less Risk We can tell DTree to take into account the investors attitude toward risk. To take less risk, we impose on the example above a Risk attitude index that makes the selection criteria more cautious. The lower the index the more risk averse the model, and vice versa. In the following sections of this chapter there is more to read about how to take into account the investors attitude toward risk. We used R equal to 84 to draw the tree below and the best decision shifted from the risky Surgery venture to the less greedy and yet still rewarding Coat business. According to a riskaverse decisionmaker's common sense, this can be seen as a reasonable alternative decision. Indeed, it requires the lowest investment among the three most remunerative strategies, it is estimated to provide a reasonable sales level, and it does not incur the risk of loss. The IT strategy was less appealing to the model because it implies a higher degree of uncertainty due to the fact that this branch requires 2 decisions to be made: (1) whether to enter the market, and (2) whether to enter it with a partner or not. The higher uncertainty coupled with a rather low expected value for the IT strategy made this option less appealing then the Coat one. Good modelling is a matter of exercising logical reasoning. The great advantage of having such models available is that managers can easily and quickly change scenarios to look at the same issue from different perspectives. The more accurate the information used for building the tree the more the result of the analysis will be shared and supported by the decision maker, often a team of people with different backgrounds and outlooks. At first the whole topic of decision analysis may seem hard to master. However, believe us, it is worth the effort! 