Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Forecast Manager > 3. Technicalities > Opening the black box of Forecast Manager > Forecast Manager: Opening the black box

Forecast Manager

Forecast Manager: Opening the black box

We at MarketingStat have decided to make Forecast Manager as transparent as possible in order to disclose to whom may be interested what happens to treated data and for satisfying the needs and wishes of the educational community. All formulae used in the models can be accessed in sheet, but users can check the option Remove formulae to replace them with numbers, which have the advantage of burning much less system resources than formulae.

Forecast Manager can run up to 14 models split in four categories, as shown below. On top of each model it can be put the treatment of special events, which may be considered as the 15th available model.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Forecast Manager creates a new worksheet in the output workbook where it stores all intermediate data needed for reaching the final report content. This sheet is made of five major sections, as shown in the illustration below.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Forecast Manager can analyze multiple time series at once. The data of the first series treated for fit starts in cell A1. In the first 12 rows of the sheet are placed the coefficients used for identifying the best fit. Below them, on the left side of the sheet are shown the input data as supplied by the user. On the right side are shown, for each model, all intermediate computations. In the furthest right portion of the sheet are stored data used for drawing control charts. Finally, below each model it can be found the forecasted value(s). The same structure is repeated, below the output of the first series, for batch forecasting (multiple time series analysis at once).

In the first row of each time series analysis is shown the best-fit coefficient of each model, which is the coefficient the user chose for identifying the best model. This is an important section, for Solver uses it when optimizing models that use unknown values. These models are marked with an asterisk in the table above.

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