Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Forecast Manager > 3. Technicalities > Opening the black box of Forecast Manager > General formulae: Models without unknowns

Forecast Manager

General formulae: Models without unknowns

Forecasting model

General Fit

Variables

No Trend No Seasonality

Linear trend

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Beta coefficients found with linear regression.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Independent variable: time.

Moving average

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Number of moving periods.

Yes Trend No Seasonality

Quadratic trend

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Beta coefficients found with multiple regression.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Independent variable: time.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Dependent variable: time 2.

Double moving average

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Number of forecast periods.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Number of moving periods.

Yes Trend Yes Seasonality

Seasonal regression

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Beta coefficients found with multiple regression.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Independent variable: time.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Dependent variable: time 2.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data = Seasonal coefficients.

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