Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Forecast Manager > 3. Technicalities > Opening the black box of Forecast Manager > Seasonal coefficients

Forecast Manager

Seasonal coefficients

Seasonal coefficients determine the average percentage by which seasonal periods differ from each other. Say, we have a quarterly time series with a common 4-period seasonal cycle. The first seasonal coefficient relates to the period Jan-Mar and expresses the average amount of percentage sales of all the periods Jan-Mar in the time series. In Excel seasonal coefficients can be found with the formula:

=SUMIF(range, criteria, sum_range) / COUNTIF(range, criteria)

In the formula above, the values contained in Sum_range are obtained as shown below and are used for deriving average percentages. This is the method suggested in Ragsdale (2001).

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

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