Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Risk Analyst > 1. How to run Risk Analyst > 2. Model Report > Time Series charts

Risk Analyst

Time Series charts

Time series are arrays of values that follow a same time pattern and refer to the same process, for, instance, monthly sales, yearly net profit, or else.

In Risk Analyst time series are modeled using the mmNAME function. If there is at least one time series in a model, in page Report of the Simulation Settings window the checkbox Time series charts and the listbox on its right are both active. Select an option from the listbox and Risk Analyst prints a table of values and a line chart, for all or only one time series in the model.

When modeling scenarios aimed at simulating economic processes Time series analysis helps seeing the curve shape over time of the observed variable. In the following example the series named Loan was modeled using 6 variables as in the following picture. In the picture below, the formula used to model cell C48 is =mmOUTPUT()+mmNAME("Loan", 0)+MAX(C4-C21, 0).

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

The time series chart produced with Risk Analyst follows. The upper green line shows percentile values at the 95% level for each variable in the time series, and the lower green line does the same for percentile values at the 5% level. The upper purple line (middle) refers to values at the 1 standard deviation level above the mean value of the variable. Intuitively, the lower purple line (middle) shows values 1 standard deviation below the mean, which is the bold red line in the middle.

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

The chart shows the entire range of values within which the model took form. If we were modeling market share, for instance, we would have seen the boundaries within which the various share levels had been generated across time.

The table of the Time Series report shows duplicated values from the Statistics report page.

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

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