Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Risk Analyst > 1. How to run Risk Analyst > 2. Model Report > Report Preview

Risk Analyst

Report Preview

After every simulation run, the Preview form can be accessed either clicking the button Preview in the Wizard form, or Risk Analyst can open it automatically if the checkbox Do not show preview after simulation in page Iterations of the form Simulation Setting is not checked.

The Preview window is not shown when Risk Analyst detects more than 100 Risk Analyst variables in a model, or when the user asks to run more than 20000 simulations at once, or when the checkbox Show Preview in form Simulation Setting is set to unchecked. In the first two cases the reason to not show the window automatically is the remarkable amount of time such models may require. The user can still access the window by clicking on the button Preview in the main form.

There are four pages in the Preview window that show most of the information available in a print report:

  • Charts
  • Sensitivity
  • Time Series
  • Tables

The button Show model opens the form explained in the corresponding section of this help chapter. The button Print accesses the form with print options. The button Export prints to sheet a picture of the chart as seen in the form. The button Cancel closes the form. After closing, the form can be reopened, and the same data will be available as long as the main window of Risk Analyst has not been closed.

The listbox Learning Center in the lower left corner of the form is where you open the MM4XL online Reference Manual, the Example sheet with test data, and other helpful utilities you can use for learning the Risk Analyst tool.

Page Charts

The following picture shows the page Charts after 1000 simulations of a model built to measure the output variable NPV. The listbox on top of this page shows a list of all Output variables in the model. On the lower left side of the form we see that the scale of measurement for the bars of the chart is in thousands. The simulation returned values for the variable NPV ranging from a Min of 8.15 thousand, say dollars, to a Max of $42.3k and Mean value equal to $19.73k. Originally, the chart was produced with 11 bars only. We changed it to 19 with the listbox Number of classes.

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

The chart shows two series: frequency distribution (bars) and cumulative distribution (line) relating to the variable shown in the listbox in the upper left area of the page, NPV in this example.

An explanation of how to interpret the chart can be found in the section Examples of this help chapter.

The vertical separator with a small blue triangle at the top can be dragged in order to split the chart into two halves. The box below the horizontal axis labels shows the corresponding cumulative percentages in both halves. In this example 52% of the simulation runs are in the range interval 9.95k-18.93k. The value below the two percentages shows the unformatted value of the bar crossed by the vertical line. To move the separator to a different position either left-click with the mouse on the small triangle, drag it to a different position and release the mouse button, or click the spin buttons on either side of the rectangle to move the vertical separator back and forth. If you click once on the chart surface to engage one of the spin buttons, you can then use the direction arrow keys from your keyboard to move the separator.

Page Sensitivity

The listbox in the upper left side of this page shows a list with all Output variables in the model. The textbox below the listbox shows two columns of data: correlations on the left and variable descriptions on the right. For each Output variable in the model, Risk Analyst computes the correlation coefficient (ranges from -1 to 1) against each Input variable in the model.

An explanation of how to interpret the chart can be found in the Examples section of this help chapter.

The bar chart shows graphically the same data shown in the textbox. When an Input variable is identified with the mmNAME function the variable is named accordingly, otherwise a more generic item name is assigned automatically.

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

Page Times Series

The mmNAME function available in Risk Analyst takes two arguments: Cell Name and ItemNum. The second argument is optional and must be an integer number that identifies the position of the item in the time series. In the following form, for instance, the time series called Market is made of 4 items, as listed in the textbox on the left side, with the first item in cell D23 of the model, the second in cell E23, and so on.

Scrolling the textbox on the right shows the data used to draw the chart. Each item is on a row, and there are 5 columns of data: the column ADDRESS shows the cell address where the item is located, the second column shows the 5% percentile point, then comes the -1 Standard Deviation, the Mean, the +1 Standard Deviation, and finally the 95% percentile point. All measures refer, in this case, to the 1000 simulation trials collected for the variable Market.

The chart on the right shows graphically the information from the textbox. The red line in the middle is the mean, and the two shaded regions refer to plus or minus 1 standard deviation and to the 5% and 95% percentiles respectively. The label at the top of the chart refers to the scale of the vertical axis.

A detailed explanation of how to interpret the time series chart can be found in the Examples section of this help chapter.

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

Page Tables

The last page of the Preview window contains two tables of data: Show simulated data and Statistics and percentiles. An explanation of the content of each table can be found on the corresponding page relating to the print report.

A detailed explanation of how to interpret the data in this page can be found in the Examples section of this help chapter.

A comment must be made on the time required to reload the data of models made of many variables. In such cases the computation can slow down the process. The solution is to use the function mmLOCK to avoid loading unnecessary information.

The print report does not allow printing more than 256 columns of data. The limitation is not present in this Tables page, although, as mentioned above, loading so many variables may result in a lengthy wait. Generally, you should consider whether you need such a long array of single variables.

 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis

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