- Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
- Part 2. MM4XL Tools
- 1. Strategic Tools
- BCG Matrix
- Brand Mapping
- Brand Switch
- Decision Tree
- Forecast Manager
- McKinsey Matrix
- Profile Manager
- Quality Manager
- Risk Analyst
- Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
- Introduction to Decision Analysis
- Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
- 1. How to run Risk Analyst
- 2. Simulation Never heard of it
- 3. Examples
- 4. Functions
- 1. Property Functions
- 2. Utility Functions
- 3. Distribution Functions
- mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
- mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
- mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
- mmCHI2 (Degrees)
- mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
- mmERF (Mean)
- mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
- mmEXPON (Mean)
- mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
- mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
- mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
- mmGEO (Trials)
- mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
- mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
- mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
- mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmPOISSON (Mean)
- mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
- mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
- mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
- mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
- mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
- Probability functions
- Technicalities
- Sources
- 2. Analytical Tools
- Business Formulas
- mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
- mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
- mmBEP, Break-Even Point
- mmBEPR, Break-Even Point with Fixed Rate of Return
- mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
- mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
- mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
- mmCODING, Coding of variables
- 1. Customer Satisfaction
- 2. Database Functions
- mmDHMS, Number to Time
- mmEI, Evolution Index
- mmEXPECT, Expected values
- 3. Forecast Errors
- mmGROWTH
- mmGROWTHBACK
- mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
- mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
- mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
- mmLEARN, Learning Curve
- mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
- 4. Opportunity Index
- 5. Performance Ranking
- 6. Project Management
- mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
- mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
- 7. Price Indexes
- 8. Queuing Theory
- mmRANGE
- mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
- mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of Re-Purchases
- mmRELATIVE
- mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
- mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
- mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
- mmSHARE
- mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
- mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
- Cluster Analysis
- CrossTab
- Descriptive Analyst
- Gravitation Analysis
- Proportion Analyst
- Sample Manager
- Segmentation Tree
- Variation Analyst
- 3. Charts and Maps
- mytest
- Version MM4XL
- contribute
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- finance
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- Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
- Part 2. MM4XL Tools
- 1. Strategic Tools
- BCG Matrix
- Brand Mapping
- Brand Switch
- Decision Tree
- Forecast Manager
- McKinsey Matrix
- Profile Manager
- Quality Manager
- Risk Analyst
- 1. How to run Risk Analyst
- 2. Simulation Never heard of it
- 3. Examples
- 4. Functions
- 1. Property Functions
- 2. Utility Functions
- 3. Distribution Functions
- mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
- mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
- mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
- mmCHI2 (Degrees)
- mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
- mmERF (Mean)
- mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
- mmEXPON (Mean)
- mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
- mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
- mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
- mmGEO (Trials)
- mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
- mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
- mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
- mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmPOISSON (Mean)
- mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
- mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
- mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
- mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
- mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
- Probability functions
- Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
- Introduction to Decision Analysis
- Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
- Technicalities
- Sources
- 2. Analytical Tools
- Business Formulas
- 1. Customer Satisfaction
- 2. Database Functions
- 3. Forecast Errors
- 4. Opportunity Index
- 5. Performance Ranking
- 6. Project Management
- 7. Price Indexes
- 8. Queuing Theory
- mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
- mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
- mmBEP, Break-Even Point
- mmBEPR, Break-Even Point with Fixed Rate of Return
- mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
- mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
- mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
- mmCODING, Coding of variables
- mmDHMS, Number to Time
- mmEI, Evolution Index
- mmEXPECT, Expected values
- mmGROWTH
- mmGROWTHBACK
- mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
- mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
- mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
- mmLEARN, Learning Curve
- mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
- mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
- mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
- mmRANGE
- mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
- mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of Re-Purchases
- mmRELATIVE
- mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
- mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
- mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
- mmSHARE
- mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
- mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
- Cluster Analysis
- CrossTab
- Descriptive Analyst
- Gravitation Analysis
- Proportion Analyst
- Sample Manager
- Segmentation Tree
- Variation Analyst
- 3. Charts and Maps
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Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Risk Analyst > 4. Functions > 2. Utility Functions > mmOPTNUM(InputRng, [Optional: StablePeriods], [Optional: SelectionLimit])
Risk Analyst mmOPTNUM(InputRng, [Optional: StablePeriods], [Optional: SelectionLimit]) This function finds the number of simulations for an Output variable where the standard deviation (sd) of the mean of the simulation trials tends to stabilize. This is useful information to reduce the number of trials and save time during the simulation or, alternately, to increase the number of trials if the analysis is not stable enough. There is no real statistical backup to the assumption that the sd of the mean is an estimator of the time to stop producing simulation values because the next value will not contribute to the analysis with enough incremental information. However, Koller suggests that: A simple method for determining whether a sufficient number of comparisons have been made is to inspect the mean of the answer variable distribution. An answer variable in Risk Analyst software is clearly an Output variable. This function takes three arguments InputRng is the range with the simulation values for the variable under inspection. StablePeriods is an optional argument that sets the number of periods that the sd of the mean has to be equal or smaller than the SelectionLimit. When missing, the default number of stable periods is set to 20. SelectionLimit is an optional argument that sets the level at which the absolute difference between the sd at time t+1 has to be equal to or smaller than the same limit for the sd at time t. When missing, the default level is 0.0005.  The function returns zero if it cannot find an optimal number of simulations. This suggests that more simulation trials have to be produced. The following two functions produce the same result: =mmOPTNUM(B14:B5013, 20, 0.0005) =mmOPTNUM(B14:B5013) The following chart refers to the sd of the mean of 5000 trials. The function mmOPTNUMSIM suggests that 976 trials are required to achieve stability at the 0.0005 level. Note that the maximum value of the vertical axis was rescaled to allow the curve to be seen, which otherwise was pushed down to the zero level by extreme values occurring in the initialization phase of the algorithm. |