Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Risk Analyst > 4. Functions > 3. Distribution Functions > mmGEO(Trials)

Risk Analyst

mmGEO(Trials)

Example

=mmGEO(0.5) can equal 2.

Application

This function describes the number of trials until the first successful occurrence. The probability of success is the same across runs. It can model many instances, the typical example is how many bets we need until we win at roulette (2.63% probability that a given number is chosen). But it works also in quality analysis to estimate sampling plans when seeking defects and in other situations when the outcome is of two kinds only.

How to use

This function returns the number of trials before a positive event. This helps, for instance, to estimate the number of cold calls before we reach a potential buyer.

Say we run a telemarketing call center, and we need to estimate the number of telephone lines needed to complete the action within a given timeframe. From past experience we know the conversion rate from call to purchase is 0.65%. The formula below could help to estimate how many calls before we have a successful one, which is a good hint to estimate the overall result of the action:

=mmGEO(0.0065)

Copy the formula above in 100 cells. You will find that most simulated values will be in the range 1 to just below 1000. For example, if we get 233, it means a client is acquired after 233 calls.

Technical profile

Type Discrete distribution.
Syntax =mmGEO(Trials)
Domain RndNum >= 0, an integer.
Mode 0.
Parameters Trials = 0 < p < 1
Trials is the number of trials or failures before the first success.
Remarks If Trials is nonnumeric mmGEO returns the #VALUE! error value.
Relationships The Geometric variate is a special case of the Negative Binomial variate.
Graphs
mmGEO(0.5) mmGEO(0.25)
 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis  Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis
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