- Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
- Part 2. MM4XL Tools
- 1. Strategic Tools
- BCG Matrix
- Brand Mapping
- Brand Switch
- Decision Tree
- Forecast Manager
- McKinsey Matrix
- Profile Manager
- Quality Manager
- Risk Analyst
- Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
- Introduction to Decision Analysis
- Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
- 1. How to run Risk Analyst
- 2. Simulation Never heard of it
- 3. Examples
- 4. Functions
- 1. Property Functions
- 2. Utility Functions
- 3. Distribution Functions
- mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
- mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
- mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
- mmCHI2 (Degrees)
- mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
- mmERF (Mean)
- mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
- mmEXPON (Mean)
- mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
- mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
- mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
- mmGEO (Trials)
- mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
- mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
- mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
- mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmPOISSON (Mean)
- mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
- mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
- mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
- mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
- mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
- Probability functions
- Technicalities
- Sources
- 2. Analytical Tools
- Business Formulas
- mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
- mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
- mmBEP, Break-Even Point
- mmBEPR, Break-Even Point with Fixed Rate of Return
- mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
- mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
- mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
- mmCODING, Coding of variables
- 1. Customer Satisfaction
- 2. Database Functions
- mmDHMS, Number to Time
- mmEI, Evolution Index
- mmEXPECT, Expected values
- 3. Forecast Errors
- mmGROWTH
- mmGROWTHBACK
- mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
- mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
- mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
- mmLEARN, Learning Curve
- mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
- 4. Opportunity Index
- 5. Performance Ranking
- 6. Project Management
- mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
- mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
- 7. Price Indexes
- 8. Queuing Theory
- mmRANGE
- mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
- mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of Re-Purchases
- mmRELATIVE
- mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
- mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
- mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
- mmSHARE
- mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
- mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
- Cluster Analysis
- CrossTab
- Descriptive Analyst
- Gravitation Analysis
- Proportion Analyst
- Sample Manager
- Segmentation Tree
- Variation Analyst
- 3. Charts and Maps
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- help
- Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
- Part 2. MM4XL Tools
- 1. Strategic Tools
- BCG Matrix
- Brand Mapping
- Brand Switch
- Decision Tree
- Forecast Manager
- McKinsey Matrix
- Profile Manager
- Quality Manager
- Risk Analyst
- 1. How to run Risk Analyst
- 2. Simulation Never heard of it
- 3. Examples
- 4. Functions
- 1. Property Functions
- 2. Utility Functions
- 3. Distribution Functions
- mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
- mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
- mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
- mmCHI2 (Degrees)
- mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
- mmERF (Mean)
- mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
- mmEXPON (Mean)
- mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
- mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
- mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
- mmGEO (Trials)
- mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
- mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
- mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
- mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
- mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
- mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmPOISSON (Mean)
- mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
- mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
- mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
- mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
- mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
- mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
- Probability functions
- Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
- Introduction to Decision Analysis
- Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
- Technicalities
- Sources
- 2. Analytical Tools
- Business Formulas
- 1. Customer Satisfaction
- 2. Database Functions
- 3. Forecast Errors
- 4. Opportunity Index
- 5. Performance Ranking
- 6. Project Management
- 7. Price Indexes
- 8. Queuing Theory
- mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
- mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
- mmBEP, Break-Even Point
- mmBEPR, Break-Even Point with Fixed Rate of Return
- mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
- mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
- mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
- mmCODING, Coding of variables
- mmDHMS, Number to Time
- mmEI, Evolution Index
- mmEXPECT, Expected values
- mmGROWTH
- mmGROWTHBACK
- mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
- mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
- mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
- mmLEARN, Learning Curve
- mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
- mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
- mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
- mmRANGE
- mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
- mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of Re-Purchases
- mmRELATIVE
- mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
- mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
- mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
- mmSHARE
- mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
- mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
- Cluster Analysis
- CrossTab
- Descriptive Analyst
- Gravitation Analysis
- Proportion Analyst
- Sample Manager
- Segmentation Tree
- Variation Analyst
- 3. Charts and Maps
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mytest > help > Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Forecast Manager > 2. Anatomy of a Forecast Manager Output Report > 2. Best fitted model
Forecast Manager 2. Best fitted model This section shows for each item in the actual time series the corresponding forecasted value, its error, and the confidence interval. What we call here confidence interval actually would be more correct calling coefficient of Consistency of Performance, as named in the Reliability & Accuracy Measures table below. This is the level at which the forecast manager wants to proof how many fitted values lie above and below the critical boundaries. The picture below shows the standard kind of labels printed by default when no label range is selected (column A). They can, however, be replaced with ones own labels. Tip: To (un)hide rows select the row before and after the hidden one(s), row 30 and row 78 in the picture above, and click on Format Row Hide or, alternatively, Unhide. |