mytest > help > Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Forecast Manager > 3. Technicalities > Opening the black box of Forecast Manager > General formulae: Models with unknowns

Forecast Manager

General formulae: Models with unknowns

The models in the table that follows require solving single and nested equations that make use of unknown values. This is a task that can be performed with Solver, the standard equation solver supplied with Excel.

Notation:

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data
Actual data.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data
Fitted data.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data
Average of actual data.

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data
= Residual = Error term.

Forecasting model

General Fit

Unknown value

No Trend No Seasonality

Exponential smoothing

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

No Trend Yes Seasonality

Stationary data additive seasonality

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

b (beta)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Stationary data multiplicative seasonality

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

b (beta)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Weighted moving average

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

W (weight)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Yes Trend No Seasonality

Browns linear exponential smoothing

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

b (beta)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Holts double exponential smoothing

Source: Bails

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

b (beta)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Triple exponential smoothing

Source: Bails

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Yes Trend Yes Seasonality

Holt-Winters additive seasonality

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

b (beta)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

g (gamma)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality

Source: Ragsdale

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

a (alpha)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

b (beta)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

g (gamma)

Sales Forecast Software with Sales History Data

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