 Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
 Part 2. MM4XL Tools
 1. Strategic Tools
 BCG Matrix
 Brand Mapping
 Brand Switch
 Decision Tree
 Forecast Manager
 McKinsey Matrix
 Profile Manager
 Quality Manager
 Risk Analyst
 Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
 Introduction to Decision Analysis
 Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
 1. How to run Risk Analyst
 2. Simulation Never heard of it
 3. Examples
 4. Functions
 1. Property Functions
 2. Utility Functions
 3. Distribution Functions
 mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
 mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
 mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
 mmCHI2 (Degrees)
 mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
 mmERF (Mean)
 mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
 mmEXPON (Mean)
 mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
 mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
 mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
 mmGEO (Trials)
 mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
 mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
 mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
 mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmPOISSON (Mean)
 mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
 mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
 mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
 mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
 mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
 Probability functions
 Technicalities
 Sources
 2. Analytical Tools
 Business Formulas
 mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
 mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
 mmBEP, BreakEven Point
 mmBEPR, BreakEven Point with Fixed Rate of Return
 mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
 mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
 mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
 mmCODING, Coding of variables
 1. Customer Satisfaction
 2. Database Functions
 mmDHMS, Number to Time
 mmEI, Evolution Index
 mmEXPECT, Expected values
 3. Forecast Errors
 mmGROWTH
 mmGROWTHBACK
 mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
 mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
 mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
 mmLEARN, Learning Curve
 mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
 4. Opportunity Index
 5. Performance Ranking
 6. Project Management
 mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
 mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
 7. Price Indexes
 8. Queuing Theory
 mmRANGE
 mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
 mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of RePurchases
 mmRELATIVE
 mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
 mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
 mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
 mmSHARE
 mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
 mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
 Cluster Analysis
 CrossTab
 Descriptive Analyst
 Gravitation Analysis
 Proportion Analyst
 Sample Manager
 Segmentation Tree
 Variation Analyst
 3. Charts and Maps
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 Part 1. Introduction to MM4XL
 Part 2. MM4XL Tools
 1. Strategic Tools
 BCG Matrix
 Brand Mapping
 Brand Switch
 Decision Tree
 Forecast Manager
 McKinsey Matrix
 Profile Manager
 Quality Manager
 Risk Analyst
 1. How to run Risk Analyst
 2. Simulation Never heard of it
 3. Examples
 4. Functions
 1. Property Functions
 2. Utility Functions
 3. Distribution Functions
 mmBETA (Scale, Shape)
 mmBETAGEN (Scale, Shape, [Optional: Lower], [Optional: Upper])
 mmBINOMIAL (Trials, Successes)
 mmCHI2 (Degrees)
 mmDISCRETE (InputRange, Probabilities)
 mmERF (Mean)
 mmERLANG (Scale, Shape)
 mmEXPON (Mean)
 mmEXTVAL (ModalValue, StDeviation)
 mmGAMMA (Scale, Shape)
 mmGAUSSINV (Mean, Scale)
 mmGEO (Trials)
 mmHYPERGEO (Sample, Defects, BatchSize)
 mmINTUNI (Lower, Upper)
 mmLOGISTIC (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmLOGNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmNEGBIN (Failures, Successes)
 mmNORMAL (Mean, StDeviation)
 mmPARETO (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPARETO2 (Location, ModalValue)
 mmPERT (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmPOISSON (Mean)
 mmRANDBETWEEN (Lower, Upper)
 mmRAYLEIGH (ModalValue)
 mmSTUDENT (Degrees)
 mmTRI (Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
 mmUNIFORM (Lower, Upper)
 mmWEIBULL (Life, Shape)
 Probability functions
 Risk Analyst Expert in a Few Minutes
 Introduction to Decision Analysis
 Introducing Risk Analyst with an example
 Technicalities
 Sources
 2. Analytical Tools
 Business Formulas
 1. Customer Satisfaction
 2. Database Functions
 3. Forecast Errors
 4. Opportunity Index
 5. Performance Ranking
 6. Project Management
 7. Price Indexes
 8. Queuing Theory
 mmBASS, Bass Diffusion Model
 mmBEI, Brand Equity Index
 mmBEP, BreakEven Point
 mmBEPR, BreakEven Point with Fixed Rate of Return
 mmBUYRATE, Purchase Rate Model
 mmCAGR, Compound Annual Growth
 mmCHIp, Chi Squared Test
 mmCODING, Coding of variables
 mmDHMS, Number to Time
 mmEI, Evolution Index
 mmEXPECT, Expected values
 mmGROWTH
 mmGROWTHBACK
 mmGRP, Gross Rating Points
 mmHERF, Herfindahl Index
 mmINTERPOLE, Linear Interpolation
 mmLEARN, Learning Curve
 mmMSAR, Market Share to Advertising Ratio
 mmPREMIUM, Price Premium
 mmPRESS, Product Performance Index
 mmRANGE
 mmREBUY, Repeat Purchase Rate
 mmREBUYS, Estimated Number of RePurchases
 mmRELATIVE
 mmSAMPLE, Sample Size
 mmSAMPLEMIN, Minimum Sample for Significant Values
 mmSEASON, Seasonality Indexes
 mmSHARE
 mmSIGNIF, Significance Test
 mmVARc, Coefficient of Variation
 Cluster Analysis
 CrossTab
 Descriptive Analyst
 Gravitation Analysis
 Proportion Analyst
 Sample Manager
 Segmentation Tree
 Variation Analyst
 3. Charts and Maps
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mytest > help > Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Risk Analyst > 2. Simulation Never heard of it > Interpreting distributions
Risk Analyst Interpreting distributions There are two major elements playing a role in the shape of a distribution and, therefore, in its meaning: the range (x or horizontal axis) and the probability of occurrence (y or vertical axis). Range and probability of occurrence allow you to set some general rules for interpreting distributions that apply to both riskadverse and to risktaker decisionmakers. Rule 1: When dealing with distributions characterizing variables for which more is better, such as profit or sales, the distribution with the higher values is the most appealing. The example below shows two equally shaped distributions. The one on the right, however, is more appealing because it represents less risk having more positive values. When modeling variables where less is better, such as costs, the distribution on the left would become more appealing. Rule 2: Between two distributions with the same range, the distribution with a triangular shape is more appealing than a uniform distribution. The picture below on the right shows a less risky distribution, whilst the uniform likelihood of occurrence of the one on the left makes it less appealing. Rule 3: Between two distributions, the one with the greatest range spread is less appealing. The picture below on the right shows a less risky distribution, whilst the larger range of the distribution on the left makes it less appealing. 