mytest > help > Part 2. MM4XL Tools > 1. Strategic Tools > Risk Analyst > 4. Functions > 3. Distribution Functions > mmPERT(Lower, ModalValue, Upper)

Risk Analyst

mmPERT(Lower, ModalValue, Upper)

Example

=mmPERT(0,4,12) can equal 9.3697586.

Application

This is a very useful distribution. It works similary to the the triangular distribution mmTRI. It can model events for which the distribution is unknown and thought to be asymmetric; for example, it could be the cost of a project, the time to complete a task, or the price of a good.

mmPERT is a very simple and self-explanatory distribution that offers the advantage of a smoothed curve, as opposed to sharp one of mmTRI.

How to use

Say we are modeling the long-term profitability of a new product and we need an estimate of our market share. We assume that future market share will be in the range 2%-14% with the most likely value being 4%. The formula below helps to model this instance:

=mmPERT(2, 4, 14)

Copy the formula above in 100 cells. You will find that it produces values in the range 2%-14% and the most likely value (or the average, if the mode cannot be computed) will be around the desired 4%.

Technical profile

Type Continuous distribution.
Syntax =mmPERT(Lower, ModalValue, Upper)
Domain Lower <= RndNum <= Upper
Mode ModalValue.
Parameters ModalValue = the mode
Lower = lower limit
Upper = upper limit
Remarks If any argument is nonnumeric mmPERT returns the #VALUE! error value.
If Lower >= Upper OR Lower > ModalValue returns the #VALUE! error value.
Relationships None.
Graphs
mmPERT(0, 4, 10) mmPERT(10, 30, 100)
 Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis  Monte Carlo Simulation Software: Management Process Risk Analysis
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