MM4XL Home > Sales Analysis > Forecast Manager

# How to Forecast Accurately: 14 Forecasting Methods using Sales History Data and Linear Programming

How to forecast sales accurately? Try different forecast methods applying linear programming to sales history data. Try MM4XL Forecast Manager software tool.

## What: Accurate short-term sales forecast and not only

Forecast Manager software tool of MM4XL software makes projections from any sort of historical data. We refer to historical sales data because short-term sales forecast works best with sales historical data. The Forecast Manager tool of MM4XL software is enriched with the power of linear optimization, which means reaching the best solution for every fitted curve. Each forecast method is run, in seconds, hundreds or even thousands of times, every time trying new parameters. The curve that best fits the sales data is shown in a succinct but detailed report rich in charts, coefficients, and indices that highlight all aspects relevant to the forecasting manager for taking decisions.

Forecast Manager has been written according to currently-popular MBA textbooks. It is accurate, cost-effective, easy to learn, and intended for business decision-makers. Last but not least, all computations are shown by means of common Excel formulas: we opened the Black-Box for you.

Although easy to use, Forecast manager makes available a comprehensive range of forecast methods and output reports, resulting in very accurate sales forecasts from sales history data.

The built-in option for the analysis of special events is very useful to analyse the effect of occasional events such as discounts offered for your product or by competitors.

These are the 14 forecasting methods. Each method can adapt to the trend in the data, to the seasonality pattern or to both:

 Forecast Method Seasonality Trend Exponential smoothing No No Moving average No No Linear trend No No Stationary data additive Yes No Stationary data multiplicative Yes No Brown linear exponential smoothing No Yes Holt double exponential smoothing No Yes Triple exponential smoothing No Yes Weighted moving average No Yes Double moving average No Yes Quadratic trend No Yes Holt-Winter additive seasonality Yes Yes Holt-Winter multiplicative seasonality Yes Yes Seasonal regression Yes Yes

## What users say about MM4XL software

...we have found [MM4XL software] very useful. As a result, a number of our colleagues across the organisation have requested access to the software. We are interested in increase the number that we have and I would like if you could provide me with some quotes for: An organisation wide licence, 100 additional licences...
J. T.
Interprise Ireland, Marketing Executive, Britain

I am teaching Business Intelligence, Marketing and strategic information management. Next year I will start a new semester on managing innovation. I am looking forward to use [MM4XL software] to demonstrate some concept to my students. I am also working as federal advisor for Agoria a Industry Federation I would be pleased to write a short article...
P. S.

I am a marketing/strategy professor on service firms and I could be interested teaching with your product [MM4XL software]. I am nowadays quite busy on my research but I would love to learn deeper about your software in the near future.
Prof. E.
IMHI, ESSEC-Cornell, France

I am really interested in the brand mapping techniques in Market research section [of MM4XL software]. Please give me information about this and how to do with this and analyzing on this. Thank you very much!
P. V. K.
Syngenta, Marketing & Business Planning, Vietnam

One of my colleagues has been working on MM4XL for brand mapping and is delighted with it (vast improvement on the old DOS beast we have been using)...
R. D.
BDRC, Operations & Development Director, UK

Hi, we are using MM4XL from the 6 release, It is wonderful.
R. C.
Antonio Carraro SPA, Marketing, Italy

Estoy interesado en recibir los cursos de entrenamiento pero se que me sera dificil debido a que mis ingresos no me permiten estos lujos. Ya yo he trabajado con el MM4XL en varias ocasiones haciendo analisis de cartera de negocios, utilizando ambas matrices la BCG y la de Markensi (disculpeme por el error ortografico). Si al menos pudiera obtener de forma gratuita los folletos y el CD me seria de gran ayuda. Como les decia me he valido de estas herramientas para realizar analisis y me resultan muy interesantes y provechosa. Saludos y gracias por este magnifico sofware.
A. O.
Brazil

...I find your product [MM4XL software] very good...
S. L.
Vodafone, Head of Customer Insight, Sweden

I work with an Advertising agency in Nigeria as a strategic planning Manager. I am just downloading the trial [of MM4XL software] version if I find it interesting I can help you market it in Nigeria.
T. H.

Dr. [...] gave me the copy of MM4XL that you sent to him. I installed it on my computer and began to get familiar with the package. It looks very impressive...
K. D.
Chairman of Marketing, Business Policy and International Business Michael G. DeGroote School of Business McMaster University, Canada

I have used your programme in my classes in international marketing, and my students, both part-timers (working adults) and full timers have found your programme [MM4XL software] useful in their course work.
C. C. F
Marketing Professor

I have been asked to write an extensive review article on MM4XL for one of the leading marketing journals, the Journal of Consumer Marketing... This journal, which has seven issues per year, is widely read both in the academic community and among marketing practitioners. In every issue it has a section "Computer Currency" under the editorship of Dr. [...]. This section presents and reviews new software for marketing...
W. G., Ph.D.
Evert McCabe/UPS Chair in Economics, Business and Accounting, Hillsdale College, USA

I am currently an MBA student at the Warwick Business School in the UK. I visited your web site and I would be interested to have some pricing information on a student rate for the MM4XL licence. I have extensive marketing and strategy research to overtake and your product seem relevant to this endeavour.
G. L.
MBA Student, UK

Thank you for your review copy of MM4XL, which I received today. My preliminary impression is that it looks interesting and will be suitable for review in Marketing Research...
C. C., PhD
Marketing Research Magazine, Editor, Canada

I am a student and I find your [MM4XL] software very useful.
S. P.
MBA Student

This product [MM4XL software] was an interesting tool and I have forwarded information about it to a few persons more into strategic marketing than I am.
J. H.
InterMedium, Competitive Intelligence, Norway

I am a teacher of business statistics at university (Universidad de Buenos Aires, www.econ.uba.ar). Your [MM4XL] software seems very powerful and we are very interested in it... Best regards, keep on working hard!
F. U.
University Professor, Argentina

We find your [MM4XL] software interesting. We are keen to pursue this as the computer literacy in India is growing and so are the use of these kinds of tools in the business. We actually need to grow the market as there may not be a ready made slot. With a number of B-schools and most of them who cannot afford a SPSS this [MM4XL] would also become a useful tool.
R. K. M.
India

I use a lot of strategic analysis in my courses which deal mainly with turning around distressed or bankrupt firms. I was wasting a lot of time to design "bubble" graphs in my Powerpoint presentations. So, I looked for a "clever" [MM4XL] software doing my job better than me with Excel or even Delta Graph or HarvardXL
A. J.
Professor, France

I have installed the [MM4XL] program and I am very impressed with its capabilities.
T. T.
Nova Southeastern University, Professor, USA

Thank you very much for your quick response. I did as you suggested, and the [MM4XL] software works great. The new features are fantastic. I WILL certainly RECOMMEND it to our other marketing directors and managers for them to purchase.
McP
Nationwide Insurance, USA

Although I have not yet begun to work with this program [MM4XL software], my colleagues tell me it is an excellent one.
C. C. F.
Professor

I used your product [MM4XL software] under the 21 day trial and found it helpful enough that I wanted to purchase it..
J. S.
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Director New Initiatives, USA

I am a marketing research professor at Rome University and would be interested in utilising your software [MM4XL] during my course.
G. M.
University Professor, Italy

...Your product [MM4XL software] looks very interesting and useful.
C. R., Ph.D.
Professor, Dep't of Business Information Technology, Director, The Dominion Center for Energy Modeling & Optimization Pamplin College of Business, USA

This [MM4XL software] looks outstanding! If I were a marketing manager in charge of brand positioning/portfolio analyses/sales, then I would definitely want to subscribe to your site. Plugging in your own company data and producing such outstanding graphs/charts would be a real advantage and enormous time-saver. (I do not know of any other source, database or single market research study, that would capture your own company data in so many different ways.)
V. G.
Roche Pharmaceuticals, USA

Thank you for your service. I am really looking forward to take advantage of your powerfull analisys tool [MM4XL software]. You can be sure that I will stribe to be helpfull to you in any way.
K. C. Q.
Bayer Pharmaceuticals, Marketing Healthcare, Venezuela

I have referred to MM4XL in two training courses that I have delivered to major retail banks in South Africa. The two training courses were: Statistical Data Mining and Credit Risk Management [and] Business Forecasting and Decision Support for Project Managers in Retail Banking...
J. D.
ARISTA Training, South Africa

Here is a link to a marketing analytical software called MM4XL used to improve strategic decision-making. It looks quite complete and comes to a very affordable price... BTW, I am not an affiliate or a partner to this product/company.
N.
MarketingProfs.com

Thanks Mike, great tool [MM4XL software].
D. S. M.
ChemQuest, President, USA

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, vor einigen Jahren haben wir MM4XL erworben. Da uns die Trialversion 5.x gut gefiel moechten wir das Tool gerne weiter benutzen... Wie hoch waere der Preis fuer eine Singellizenz (falls dies moeglich ist) resp. einer Netzwerklizenz (RPS = 100 Pers.).
M. F.
Roche Pharma, Marktforschung, Schweiz

...the students of the advanced marketing course MGT411B to use the MM4XL software. We are all very excited and hope that it will do as well in the class room as we expect.
B. J. B., PhD
University of California Los Angeles, UCLA, USA

We recently downloaded the trial version of MM4XL 5.0. We are very impressed...
P. D. V.
SmartPractice, South Africa

...I teach applied statistics in Market Research. I consider your [MM4XL] soft simply outstanding.
E. D.
Director of the graduate program in Risk and Insurance at Catholic University, Venezuela

Provide a student price for courses on marketing research using your excellent [MM4XL] software (rather than Marketing Engineering I am using now for teaching).
J. L. C.
Director du CEROG, I.A.E Graduate School of Management, France

Greetings [...]. I heard from [MM4XL software] in a magazine tried the demo and Loved it! In an interview at Panacea Magazine we talked about [MM4XL software] and concluded that it is one of the best that we have known. Congratulations!
T. O.
Cantv.net, Sales Manager, Venezuela

## When: Short-term sales forecast

 Click to enlarge Forecast Manager software is used for short-term sales forecasts. Often we are asked "How long is short-term?" Our answer is "It depends on the cycle length". Click to enlarge If, for instance you want to make a future forecast using 36 monthly data points, you work with 3 data cycles of length 12. Our rule of thumb for a reliable forecast is to project no further than 15% of the data points times the number of cycles. So, 12 times 15% is about 2 times 3, which suggests that with 36 data points available you should not project further than 6 data points.

## Who: Forecast Manager for strategic decision-makers

The Forecast Manager tool is used by business decision-makers often supported by business analysts. Among our business decision-maker clients there are:
• General Managers and CEOs
• Marketing Managers
• Sales Managers
• Marketing Analysts
• Pricing Managers
• Quality Managers
• Product Portfolio Managers

## Forecast Manager tool features:

 14 different forecasting methods accounting for seasonality and trend effects Forecast formulas visible Batch forecast using several time series simultaneously Linear optimization to always find the best fit Analysis of special events, like discounts and other promotional activities Detailed output reports rich in charts and coefficients Cusum chart to diagnose the functioning of the best forecast method Special Event chart shows the effect of promotions on sales Accuracy of fit tested with 7 different methods The example sheets describe how to run the tool The tool works in 5 different languages: E, F, G, I, S Help file with advanced description of the Forecast Manager concepts